A study by the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE shows where the production of hydrogen and power-to-X products including transport to Germany is most favorable. The result: Brazil, Colombia and Australia offer particularly good conditions for ammonia and other derivatives; gaseous green hydrogen would be best imported from Southern Europe or North Africa - if pipelines are available.
The study by Fraunhofer ISE looks at power-to-X projects on a GW capacity scale. It focuses on 39 countries in 12 regions. The latter were preselected by the H2Global Foundation, which commissioned the study. GW projects have long planning and construction phases, so the realization of the first projects should be initiated at an early stage.
The expected demand is high: according to calculations by Fraunhofer ISE, Germany will need both domestically produced and imported power-to-X energy carriers in at least the single-digit TWh range by 2030.
Where is production cheapest?
According to study author Dr. Christoph Hank, local production costs for green hydrogen are nowhere as low as in Brazil, Australia and northern Colombia. Between €96 and €108 is the cost of producing a MWh of green hydrogen there, he said, or about €3.20 to €3.60 per kg.
What makes these countries so attractive for hydrogen exports? The study cites in particular the high potential for solar and wind plants. It guarantees high utilization of the often expensive power-to-X processes at all times, it says. On the other hand, the long distance between production and use is not an exclusion criterion: With the help of the derivatives ammonia, methanol or kerosene, transport is no problem thanks to the high energy density of the substances and the already established ship logistics.
Pipelines cheaper than ships
The study sees an alternative in the import of gaseous hydrogen via pipeline. Regions in southern Europe and North Africa are particularly suitable for this, it says.
"Provided that the first sections of this pipeline infrastructure are built by 2030, large quantities of sustainably produced hydrogen could be transported to Europe and thus also Germany in a very cost-effective manner from then on," explains Dr. Chrisoph Hank.
Countries such as Algeria, Tunisia and Spain would come to around €137 per MWh, including transport in a converted pipeline. That corresponds to €4.56 per kg of green hydrogen.account, either in the form of liquid hydrogen or ammonia," he says.
