Germany will have to import a large proportion of green hydrogen and hydrogen-based synthesis products to cover its needs. A consortium of scientists and development cooperation partners has developed a global hydrogen potential atlas that identifies and analyses sustainable locations for the green hydrogen economy of the future. For the first time, the study provides a comprehensive overview of Germany's potential partner countries for cooperative development, including potential trade volumes, production and transport costs for 2030 and 2050.
As part of the project, the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems (ISE) primarily carried out techno-economic analyses of potential locations for green hydrogen production and the export of possible Power-to-X products. The team conducted a detailed analysis of the costs along the value chain for imports from Brazil, Morocco, Canada, Ukraine and the United Arab Emirates. The researchers also took the needs of the partner countries into account, such as the sustainable fulfilment of their own energy demand, the achievement of the formulated climate targets and compliance with specific sustainability criteria for the hydrogen economy.
Hydrogen import to Germany simulated
Using the H2ProSim simulation tool, the team analysed the import of five Power-to-X products (liquid hydrogen, ammonia, liquid organic hydrogen carriers, methanol, Fischer-Tropsch products) by ship. While hydrogen production as such accounts for the largest share of costs (two-thirds to three-quarters), the costs for synthesis, storage and transport vary depending on the product and production volume.
Depending on the chosen development scenario, the study shows that import costs of around EUR 3.50 to 6.50 per kilogramme of hydrogen will be possible in 2030 and EUR 2 to 4.50 in 2050 (see figure). The range of the results shown is due to the different products and hydrogen supply time series. They constitute marginal costs for the export of large energy imports linked to the energy industry at the German port. In principle, most of the countries analysed in the project can realise costs at a comparable level, the scientists write.
The question of whether transport by ship or pipeline is more favourable must be answered individually for each country. While import by ship allows greater flexibility for market participants, pipeline transport entails strategic partnerships on the one hand and dependencies on the other, which many countries actually wish to avoid.
According to the study, liquid hydrogen is the most cost-effective option for importing pure hydrogen by ship in the long term, although this technology is not yet available on the market. Among the Power-to-X products, ammonia is the most promising candidate, followed by methanol and Fischer-Tropsch synthesis products. The authors of the study therefore recommend the production of ammonia as the easiest and cheapest product to realise in the short and medium term. In addition, the development of liquid hydrogen technologies should be accelerated as potentially the most economically attractive option for hydrogen imports.
Positive effects on exporting countries
Together with their project partners, the researchers at Fraunhofer ISE also looked at environmental aspects, sustainability criteria and social and economic development opportunities for the exporting countries, such as the expected local value creation, jobs and other co-benefits. The hydrogen-exporting countries can therefore benefit from the trade: the expansion of the renewable energies required for production can lead to a faster energy transition and lower electricity costs. However, this synergy effect may weaken again as export volumes increase: once the renewable energy potential has been exhausted, electricity prices may rise in the exporting country.
‘We therefore recommend addressing the effects on the local energy transition with the exporting countries at an early stage in order to avoid undesirable developments in the expansion of infrastructure. For some countries, upper limits on export volumes have become clear and these should be taken into account’, explains Ombeni Ranzmeyer, one of the authors of the study from Fraunhofer ISE. Countries that can defossilise their industry and energy sector more quickly should also be given preference.
Sustainable water supply for hydrogen production
To produce one kilogramme of hydrogen, electrolysers currently require 15 to 20 kilogrammes of fresh water (including losses and cooling). In addition, significantly less water is required for power generation – as a coolant or for cleaning photovoltaic systems and, depending on the product, for synthesis. In regions with low freshwater reserves, alternatives (seawater desalination, transport via pipelines) must therefore be included in the planning of sustainable hydrogen projects. In the Hypat project, the Fraunhofer ISE team analysed the water costs for potential Power-to-X sites in Morocco as an example, combining geographical data with the costs of water treatment technologies and pipelines. The study shows that a minimum electrolyser project size must be achieved to guarantee the economic viability of water supply and transmission, which varies depending on the region. The investment costs for the water supply in Morocco were between €0.012 and €0.245 per kilogramme of hydrogen produced, depending on the location, which is very low compared to other costs (e.g. for electrolysis). ‘With this study, we were able to create a balanced framework for the evaluation of water costs for electrolysis and PtX production models, without neglecting the sustainability aspects that affect all sectors that rely on the precious resource of water’, says study author Friedrich Mendler.
Source: Fraunhofer ISE
