In a recent study, researchers from the Jülich Research Centre conclude with certainty that there are infrastructural, economic and societal pathways towards a net zero energy system in Germany. However, sectors such as the automotive and metal-working industries face a higher risk of job losses in the course of the transformation.
How can Germany achieve net zero cost-effectively by 2045? A team of systems analysts from Jülich have assessed possible scenarios and examined the regional effects as part of a move towards net zero greenhouse gas emissions. The researchers came to some important findings. Hydrogen production will initially be expanded in the north of the country. Expanding and making use of offshore wind power requires an extensive expansion of the power grids. According to the researchers’ highly detailed analysis, net zero by 2045 in Germany is still possible from both a technical and financial standpoint. In previous studies, they homed in on nationwide efforts to reach net zero GHG emissions by 2045. In this follow-up study, they take a regional perspective and show a transformation path that considers all infrastructure categories together.
Wind power and photovoltaics expansion to vary by region
According to the study, in future, electricity from wind and photovoltaic systems will account for the lion’s share of the power supply: more than 90%. If the cost of the necessary expansion of renewables is to be minimised, these efforts will need to be tailored to each region’s specific circumstances. This would allow the best possible use of the potential of each region, while at the same time ensuring security of supply.
As northern Germany has significant resources supporting wind power, electricity production from renewable sources will rise disproportionately in that part of the country and new energy centres will emerge. To best exploit the benefits of this locational advantage, a flexible use of electricity must be possible. For example, the construction of electrolysis facilities for hydrogen production in the coastal regions will be promoted initially.
Hydrogen production will be increasingly rolled out in the southern and eastern states of Germany during the later phase of the transformation, making it possible to meet the growing demand for hydrogen. Around 10% of German electrolysis capacity will be located in these areas. This regional distribution will help to ensure low wastage of renewable energy.
Expanding and developing infrastructure
For all regions of Germany to benefit, an expansion of the power grid is necessary – this is particularly important for electricity supply to energy-intensive industrial centres in North Rhine-Westphalia and the Rhine-Neckar and Rhine-Main regions. According to the study, if expansion of the grid is delayed, less offshore electricity can be purchased. Action would then have to be taken to counterbalance this – specifically, by further expanding the hydrogen infrastructure as well as making use of renewables on land, from energy storage systems and from re-electrification plants. In these areas, an additional investment of around 8% would be necessary in this scenario.
Another key factor for the research team is developing the hydrogen grid so that it can link domestic production, imports, consumers and storage locations as effectively as possible. By 2045, this would require around 18,000 kilometres (11,000 miles) of pipelines. However, these would not have to be installed from scratch. According to the researchers, the demand for natural gas is set to decrease – this will enable the existing pipeline infrastructure to be converted for hydrogen.
District heating is largely to be decarbonised via electricity, biomass and thermal energy storage. Biomass and biogas will be used in more rural areas, while electric power will be used in urban centres.
According to the study, power plants operating with hydrogen, biogas and biomass would ensure a reliable supply during lulls in electricity generation from sources such as wind and solar. A large proportion of the hydrogen power plant capacities will be installed in the states of Lower Saxony and North Rhine-Westphalia, in the immediate vicinity of hydrogen storage facilities in salt caverns. By 2030, this will amount to around half of all capacities; by 2045, it will represent two-thirds. The electricity obtained from hydrogen can be transported to southern Germany via the power grid. Comprehensive hydrogen storage, including the conversion of existing cavern storage facilities and the construction of new salt caverns, is necessary to ensure the flexibility and safety required within the system.
Economy and society ready for transformation
The transformation towards net zero greenhouse gas emissions brings both opportunities and risks in terms of economic development. For instance, compared to current levels, employment growth can be expected due to increasing demand in the various sectors across all regions of the country. However, some sectors such as the automotive and metal-working industries face a higher risk of job losses in the course of the transformation.
Representative surveys have demonstrated that a large majority of the German population has a positive attitude towards renewables and hydrogen technologies. This broad acceptance is an important foundation for making further progress with the transition to green energy.
Purpose-built software
The study is based on detailed calculations using the ETHOS software suite, which was developed by the Jülich researchers specifically for this task. It allows for a scientifically rigorous analysis of the most cost-effective strategies and measures to achieve the greenhouse gas reduction targets.
The ETHOS computer models can be used to visualise the German energy supply, along with its generation pathways and all their interactions. The Jülich team affirms that these visualisations are very detailed in terms of time and place. The team explains that the software takes future interactions between energy imports and exports into account and conducts a comprehensive infrastructure analysis that includes all relevant energy sources such as electricity, gas, hydrogen and thermal. This broad-based analysis is crucial to making informed decisions for shaping the energy transition and effectively driving the transformation to a sustainable power supply, the researchers add.
Source: Jülich Research Centre (Forschungszentrum Jülich)
